AGP Executive Report

Sudan Peace & Dialogue: Sudan’s Prime Minister says a national dialogue is set to begin “soon” ahead of elections, while reports also highlight debate over whether dialogue can stabilize the country without RSF disarmament. Blue Nile Crisis: Fighting around Kurmuk and Qeisan has displaced more than 200,000 people in Blue Nile, with aid and health conditions worsening amid heavy rains and shortages. RSF Defections: Sudan’s army says over 300 RSF fighters have defected, including commanders, with renewed pressure on Darfur armed groups to lay down arms and face accountability. Ethiopia Border Tensions: Drone strikes and rising military posturing in Ethiopia’s Tigray add pressure to the Horn’s security environment, complicating Sudan’s eastern flank stability. Humanitarian Protection: UN leaders mark World Humanitarian Day by warning that drone-era warfare is normalizing attacks on aid workers, including in conflict zones like Sudan. Regional Diplomacy: Sudan’s Burhan-led channels are described as seeking de-escalation with Ethiopia through Malik Agar, aiming to reduce risks along contested borders.

Sudan War Update: Sudan’s army says 318 RSF fighters, including four commanders, defected to its ranks in Al-Dabba, Northern State, arriving with up to 50 combat vehicles; defectors cite weak institutional governance inside the RSF and say they joined for Sudan’s unity. Humanitarian Crisis: The UN’s IOM warns that fighting plus seasonal floods are compounding displacement, with at least 200,000 more displaced since late 2025 and 8.6 million fleeing the war since April 2023; it also flags disrupted relief access tied to supply-chain delays through the Red Sea and Hormuz. Health System Collapse: WHO says 37% of Sudan’s health facilities are out of service in 2026, after 900+ attacks on healthcare between January and August, leaving hundreds dead and more injured. Diplomacy: Kuwait’s foreign minister met Sudan’s counterpart to discuss regional security, while Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan sent a message to the Kuwaiti Amir on strengthening bilateral ties.

Sudan War Update: The Sudanese army says hundreds of RSF fighters, including commanders, defected and joined its ranks in Northern State, citing “absence of institutional structures” inside the RSF and framing the move as a bid for national unity. Humanitarian Protection: On World Humanitarian Day, aid groups and officials warned that humanitarian work in Sudan is increasingly unsafe, with workers facing killings, injuries, detention, harassment, and attacks on convoys and hospitals—while funding shortfalls further restrict access to civilians. Nile Politics: A former Sudan water minister argues Ethiopia’s planned Blue Nile cascade dams are not inherently a threat if filling and operation are coordinated across Nile Basin states, stressing benefits like steadier flows and reduced flood risk for Sudan. Regional Security Architecture: Sudan is listed among signatories to Saudi Arabia’s new Red Sea maritime defense alliance, underscoring Khartoum’s growing role in Red Sea security cooperation as the conflict environment tightens. Aid Worker Deaths: UN-linked reporting highlights record levels of violence against aid workers globally, with Sudan cited among the worst contexts for fatalities.

Sudan War Updates: The RSF is intensifying operations in Blue Nile, forcing the Sudanese army to withdraw from towns including El Kurmuk and Geisan and reposition around strategic areas, with reports of new RSF logistics arriving via Ethiopia’s Assosa. Humanitarian Fallout: More than 5,000 displaced people have reached Damazin after RSF attacks in Geissan, with Sudan Doctors Network warning of shortages of food, medicine, shelter, and risks from heavy rainfall. Regional Diplomacy: Sudan’s political track remains active as officials push dialogue ahead of elections, while the African Union renews efforts for a ceasefire and warns against foreign interference and parallel governance. Security & Alliances: Analysts highlight the growing alignment between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Eritrea’s leadership as a key factor shaping battlefield dynamics along eastern borders. International Justice: The ICC faces renewed US pressure as Washington sanctions additional ICC officials, with human rights groups citing threats to accountability for crimes including in Sudan.

Red Sea Security & Sudan’s Role: Saudi Arabia has launched a Saudi-led 14-country Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, to protect Red Sea shipping and the Bab al-Mandeb corridor as Houthi threats escalate—Sudan is listed among the signatories. Khartoum Politics & Dialogue: Sudan’s Prime Minister Kamil Idriss urged the African Union to back Sudan’s sovereignty and push a political track that includes humanitarian access and RSF/mercenary withdrawal, while AU leaders are calling for dialogue amid a fragmented battlefield and parallel authorities. Burhan’s Dialogue Push: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is again floating comprehensive dialogue, including talk of amnesty and preparatory steps, but critics warn the army’s past promises have repeatedly collided with war and political exclusion. Humanitarian Crisis in Blue Nile: Over 5,000 people displaced by RSF attacks have arrived in Damazin, with Sudan Doctors Network warning of severe shortages of food, medicine, shelter, and risks from heavy rainfall. Diplomatic Pivot with Riyadh: Sudan and Saudi Arabia signed agreements in Riyadh to create a Supreme Council for Strategic Cooperation and a coordination council, with Red Sea security highlighted as a top priority. Accountability & International Law: The ICC removed Prosecutor Karim Khan after a vote by Rome Statute states, as the court faces pressure from the US and broader challenges to international justice. Ceuta Migration Fallout (Regional Spillover): Reports from Spain’s Ceuta describe thousands of migrants and unaccompanied children living in overcrowded, under-served conditions after renewed crossing attempts.

Sudan Politics & Dialogue: Sudan’s Prime Minister Kamil Idris says a national dialogue will begin “soon” to drive reconciliation, constitutional reconstruction and elections, while setting “red lines” against equal treatment of the army and RSF and against foreign interference. Ceasefire Diplomacy: The African Union has launched a new push for a Sudan ceasefire, sending a peace and security council delegation to improve humanitarian access and revive a political process as fighting continues across Khartoum, Darfur and Kordofan. War on Civilians (Blue Nile): IOM reports fresh displacement in Blue Nile’s Qaisan area, with thousands forced from homes in days as insecurity worsens during the farming season. Refugee Returns: Kuwait-backed efforts have launched the first direct flight carrying 150 Sudanese refugees from Uganda to Khartoum, with more returns planned. Regional Security Ties: Saudi Arabia and Sudan deepen cooperation as Saudi FM Prince Faisal bin Farhan meets Sudan’s counterpart and the two sides establish a Saudi-Sudanese Coordination Council. Nile Water Tensions (Regional pressure): Egypt warns Ethiopia it will not accept any attempt to control Nile flows or build additional dams, saying it has “multiple means” to defend its interests.

Sudan War Displacement: The UN migration agency says more than 5,000 people were driven from Qaisan and nearby villages in Blue Nile over four days as security deteriorated, with the area still “tense and volatile.” Ceasefire Diplomacy: In Khartoum, the African Union Peace and Security Council met Sudan’s PM, with dialogue and free elections promised “soon,” while rejecting foreign interference and any “parallel” political structures. Dialogue Debate: Burhan’s push for an intra-Sudanese dialogue is sparking arguments over whether talks during fighting can end the war, especially as the army links peace to RSF disarmament and rejects RSF return to power. RSF/Army Battlefield Updates: Reports continue of renewed fighting and drone activity tied to the war’s spread, including claims of drone losses attributed to Sudan’s forces. Regional Water Politics: Egypt renewed warnings against Ethiopia’s plans for more Nile dams, stressing it will not allow any party to control Nile flows to downstream states—an issue that directly involves Sudan’s water security. Humanitarian Pressure: UN-linked reporting highlights how aid delivery and essential services are increasingly disrupted, with women-led groups warning they may shut down amid shrinking support.

AU Diplomacy vs Foreign Interference: The African Union Peace and Security Council rejected outside interference in Sudan and warned against “parallel entities,” urging dialogue and national reconciliation as it sends a delegation to push ceasefire talks and humanitarian access. National Dialogue for Elections: Sudan’s Prime Minister Kamil Idris said a Sudanese-led national dialogue will begin “soon,” aiming for constitutional reconstruction and “free and fair elections,” while setting “red lines” against equating the army and RSF and against foreign meddling. Army Chief on Unity: Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan reiterated the Sudanese Armed Forces are “the military of all Sudan,” pledged guarantees for the dialogue, and stressed the state won’t run the process or set its agenda. Humanitarian Fallout from Drones: Aid groups warn drone warfare is making relief work deadlier, with rising attacks on health and education and growing fear among children and aid workers. Kordofan Displacement and Attacks: UN and IOM reporting highlights thousands displaced in North Kordofan amid deteriorating security, alongside continued RSF attacks and army claims of repelling assaults. Refugee Returns via Kuwait: Kuwait-backed flights began a voluntary return project for Sudanese refugees in Uganda, targeting over 1,000 returns in about six weeks. Regional Security Pressure: Separate reporting underscores wider Red Sea tensions as Saudi leads a multinational maritime coalition to counter Houthi threats, with Sudan named among signatories.

Sudan Peace Talks Setup: Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan marked Army Day by backing an “inclusive” national dialogue, but only after RSF disarmament and with temporary immunity and legal protections for dialogue participants—while he vowed the army will keep fighting until the RSF is defeated. Dialogue Conditions & Political Fronts: Burhan also floated a common political front for negotiations, stressing the state won’t organize the talks or dictate outcomes, and that any peace must restore services, security, and civilian returns first. War’s Human Cost: A new health-system warning says 37% of Sudan’s facilities were non-functional in 2026, turning the conflict into a wider rights emergency beyond hospitals. Security & Battlefield Pressure: Reports say drone attacks hit Khartoum and northern cities, while fighting around key towns like al-Obeid continues, underscoring how military pressure shapes the political track. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Turkey reiterated concern over Sudan’s war and pushed for political solutions that preserve Sudan’s institutions.

Sudan Peace Talks: Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says the military is open to “genuine” peace, but only after the RSF disarms and fighters assemble in designated areas, with civilians returning home and services restored first. He also backs an all-party dialogue run by an independent national mechanism, offering temporary immunity and suspending criminal proceedings for dialogue participants while dialogue statements won’t be used for prosecution. Political Front: Burhan has floated a unified political-military front to negotiate an end to the war, while insisting the army will keep fighting and rejecting any settlement that brings RSF leaders back to power. War and Civilians: Fighting around El Obeid in North Kordofan remains brutal, with reports of at least 14 civilians killed in an RSF-linked attack and worsening humanitarian conditions. State Capacity Crisis: A new report warns Sudan’s health system is collapsing, with 37% of facilities non-functional in 2026—turning the conflict into a generational rights catastrophe. Regional Security: Egypt and Türkiye are pushing a coordinated diplomatic front over Sudan, while Türkiye’s Erdogan signals Egypt could join the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.

North Kordofan Violence: At least 14 civilians were killed and dozens injured in an attack on Um Arada near El Obeid, with the RSF claiming it seized the town while the Sudanese army says it repelled assaults—leaving residents fleeing amid worsening humanitarian conditions. War at the Capital Level: Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says the SAF is open to “genuine” peace, but only if the RSF lays down arms and cannot return to power, rejecting any deal that brings RSF leaders back. Humanitarian Fallout: WHO reports 37% of Sudan’s health facilities are out of service in 2026, citing repeated attacks on care, ambulances, and staff across all 18 states. Kordofan Flashpoint: El Obeid is described as trapped between siege conditions and collapsing services, with cholera risks, water shortages, and militias using civilians as shields. Regional Security Diplomacy: Turkey’s push to bring Egypt into the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signals a wider shift in regional security alignments that could reshape Sudan’s diplomatic environment. Sports & Politics: Sudanese club Al Ahli Madani appoints Nigerian coach Aliyu Zubairu on a two-year deal ahead of the CAF Confederation Cup.

Red Sea Security: Saudi Arabia announced a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect navigation through Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, with Sudan among the signatories, as Houthi attacks on shipping and Saudi energy sites keep escalating. Sudan War Update: In North Kordofan, reports say at least 14 civilians were killed in an RSF attack near El Obeid’s Um Arada area, while Sudanese forces and allied units claim they repelled RSF moves in nearby fronts. Drone Warfare: Multiple drone strikes reportedly hit Khartoum and other cities, with air defenses intercepting dozens of drones and fighting spreading across Kordofan and Blue Nile. Health System Collapse: WHO says 37% of Sudan’s health facilities were out of service in 2026, citing repeated attacks on hospitals, ambulances, and staff. UN Call for Civilians: The UN urged Sudan’s warring parties to take concrete steps to protect civilians as displacement and attacks continue, especially in Blue Nile and North Kordofan. Diplomacy Signals: Egypt and Türkiye discussed Sudan with an emphasis on ceasefire efforts and a political settlement that preserves Sudan’s unity. Humanitarian Returns: 1,100 Sudanese nationals returned from Egypt under a voluntary repatriation program, with more convoys planned. Regional Ripples: Ethiopia-Tigray tensions are rising again, with drone and artillery reports near the Sudan border raising fears of renewed conflict.

Sudan War Updates: The Sudanese army says it repelled an RSF attack on Jabal Hashaba and Umm Arda southwest of El-Obeid in North Kordofan, with the fighting framed as part of wider escalation across Kordofan, Darfur and Blue Nile. Regional Security: Ethiopia’s Tigray flare-up is raising fears of renewed war, with reports of heavy artillery and drone strikes near the Sudan border adding pressure to an already tense federal–rebel standoff. Diplomacy: Egypt, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia held talks in El Alamein, with Sudan on the agenda as they pushed for a ceasefire and a political settlement that preserves Sudan’s unity and territorial integrity. Maritime Politics: Saudi Arabia announced a 14-state Red Sea defense coalition to protect navigation through Bab al-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden, with Sudan listed among the signatories—an effort tied to Houthi threats and broader regional tensions. Humanitarian/Protection: UK policy moves to speed asylum appeals, while aid groups warn children in conflict and displacement settings remain exposed to exploitation and trafficking. Sports Governance: Six Arab football federations, including Sudan, publicly backed FIFA chief Gianni Infantino amid the World Cup commercial rights revolt.

RSF vs. Sudan Army (Blue Nile): The RSF claimed it fully took Geissan near the Ethiopian border, while the Sudanese army disputed the extent of the fighting and said a key base remained under its control; the clashes reportedly displaced about 2,500 people and involved drone and artillery strikes, with allegations of looting during the harvest season. Frontline Updates (Kurmuk & Kordofan): Separate reports say RSF and allies advanced into Kurmuk in Blue Nile as the army withdrew, while the army also said it repelled RSF attacks in North Kordofan’s Jabra al-Sheikh area and reported drone interceptions over Omdurman and other cities. Aerial Warfare & Civilian Impact: Coverage highlights continued drone attacks across Khartoum and multiple army-controlled towns, with air defenses intercepting dozens of drones, alongside UN warnings that violence is killing civilians and worsening displacement. Regional Diplomacy (Egypt-Sudan): Egypt’s foreign minister held phone talks with Sudan’s counterpart, reaffirming support for Sudan’s unity and urging any political process to be Sudanese-owned. Governance & International Pressure (FIFA): While not Sudan-specific, Sudan’s football federation joined other Arab federations backing FIFA chief Gianni Infantino amid a leadership revolt over his World Cup private-investment plan.

Sudan War Update: Paramilitary RSF drones and ground attacks hit Khartoum for a second straight day, with anti-aircraft fire reported from Omdurman and fighting continuing across central and eastern areas, while the RSF presses offensives toward key towns like El-Obeid. Blue Nile Clashes: In Geisan, Blue Nile near the Ethiopian border, UN OCHA says more than 20 civilians were killed and about 2,500 displaced amid renewed fighting. El Obeid Under Pressure: Reuters reports eight drones striking al-Obeid, killing at least two and wounding others, as drone attacks also spread to Khartoum and northern cities. Dialogue and Amnesty Talk: Sudanese Armed Forces chief Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s call for internal dialogue—along with reports of a presidential amnesty—sparks mixed reactions from political parties and human-rights voices. Regional Security: A new Saudi-led 14-state maritime coalition aims to protect Red Sea navigation against Ansar Allah (Houthis), with Sudan listed among signatories. International Spotlight: Sudanese students in the UK face an 18-month study-visa “brake” after a High Court ruling, and plan to appeal.

Sudan War Update: RSF renewed assaults and drone attacks across Sudan, with witnesses reporting strikes on Khartoum and northern cities at dawn and a major push on al-Obeid in North Kordofan, where drones triggered air defenses and left casualties, as the city faces renewed siege pressure. Capital Under Fire: AFP and witnesses described coordinated drone attacks hitting Khartoum (including Bahri/Omdurman area) plus Atbara and Ad-Damer, after months of relative calm, underscoring how quickly fighting can return to the political center. Blue Nile Displacement: IOM said about 2,500 people fled Geissan in Blue Nile after clashes, with some crossing into Ethiopia, while local authorities and RSF statements disputed who controlled the town. State Capacity & Economy: Sudan’s finance ministry briefed Prime Minister Kamel Idris on public financial reforms—electronic bidding, payroll automation, and a unified treasury—alongside plans for debt relief talks with the IMF and re-engagement with the World Bank to revive productive sectors. Regional Security Spillover: Coverage also links Sudan’s war to wider Red Sea and Horn dynamics, including new maritime security alignments that list Sudan among participating states.