AGP Executive Report

Khartoum Administration Move: Sudan’s Transitional Sovereignty Council ordered all government ministries and offices to relocate out of central Khartoum to new sites, aiming to reduce congestion and keep services running amid ongoing SAF–RSF instability. Darfur Displacement Crisis: The UN’s migration agency reported about 1,430 people fleeing five villages in North Darfur in one day as insecurity worsened; rights groups link attacks to RSF raids, village burnings, and looting. El Obeid Humanitarian Alarm: UN envoy Pekka Haavisto warned there is no military solution and said escalating fighting around El Obeid—marked by drone strikes and threats to aid access—could isolate cities and endanger thousands. Civilian Harm From Drones: Reports said a drone strike hit a fuel station in Rabak, White Nile, killing two civilians and wounding others, while El Obeid and other areas continued to face attacks. Cross-Border Crackdown: A Sudanese human rights group alleged Egyptian forces raided gold mining sites near the Sudan-Egypt border, arresting dozens and firing on miners. Regional Cooperation: Oman and Sudan signed an MoU to expand transport and logistics cooperation, including ports, maritime affairs, railways, training, and information exchange.

Sudan War Update: The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are preparing a major assault on Al-Obeid, North Kordofan, with around half a million people trapped as near-daily drone attacks continue; the UN Security Council, the US and European states are warning of an imminent escalation after past atrocities in El Fasher. Humanitarian Crisis: UN-linked reporting says El-Obeid could face mass atrocities, while civilians in other areas endure rising drone strikes, including a drone hit on a fuel station in Rabak (White Nile) that killed two and wounded others. Battlefield Developments: Fighting is intensifying across multiple fronts, with SAF claiming drone shootdowns and new gains in Blue Nile, while reports also describe RSF pressure around strategic cities. Displacement and Hunger: In eastern Chad, Darfur mothers in Iridimi refugee camp describe starvation and desperation after fleeing RSF offensives in North Darfur. Rights and Expression: Sudan’s government faces criticism over new measures tied to cybercrime and electronic registration for websites, with journalists warning it could tighten control over online speech. International Pressure: Sudanese officials reject “false equivalence” between SAF and RSF, accusing parts of the international community of enabling impunity.

Frontline Escalation: Fighting is intensifying across Sudan, with the SAF reporting drone interceptions north of Al-Tuwaysha in North Darfur and new gains in Blue Nile after taking Al-Bar, while RSF claims fresh advances in North Darfur. Atrocity Warnings: UN officials and the Security Council are sounding alarms over escalating risks of mass violence as RSF tightens around the strategic city of El-Obeid, where civilians face shortages and repeated drone strikes have hit services. Humanitarian Fallout: UN agencies report deteriorating conditions in North Kordofan, including attacks disrupting power, water, and medical facilities, with growing fears of a humanitarian catastrophe. Sexual Violence Accountability: A new UN human rights report says conflict-related sexual violence has been used systematically as a weapon of war, with most verified incidents attributed to RSF and allied forces, warning that impunity could entrench cycles of abuse. Civil Society Under Pressure: In Khartoum, journalists and civil society criticized new media and cybercrime-related measures, including mandatory electronic registration for websites, warning it could further restrict freedom of expression. Currency & De Facto Split: Reuters reports newly issued Sudanese pounds circulating in RSF-controlled areas, raising questions about who is funding the notes and deepening the country’s practical division.

El Obeid Under Threat: Germany and six European allies urged an immediate halt to RSF attacks on Sudan’s El Obeid, warning of credible signs of an imminent offensive and stressing civilians must be able to leave and aid must reach them safely. Humanitarian Crisis Deepens: The UN warned conditions are deteriorating in Al-Ubayyid, with drone strikes disrupting power, water, and medical services, while UN reporting highlights the wider collapse of basic services amid escalating violence. Atrocity Warnings Intensify: The UN and international partners say El Obeid could become another El Fasher, as U.S. envoy talks push for a new political process and an urgent humanitarian truce. Sexual Violence Documented: A new UN Human Rights report details widespread conflict-related sexual violence across Sudan since 2023, calling it a weapon of war and warning that stigma and impunity will undermine peace. Frontline Updates: SAF claims gains in Blue Nile while RSF reports advances in North Darfur, underscoring shifting control and continued displacement. Local Governance Pressure: Sudanese teachers in Khartoum began a strike over unpaid salaries, escalating protests as schools reopen unevenly. Regional Politics & Borders: Libya’s eastern authorities banned entry for nationals of Sudan and three other countries, tightening migration controls as refugees face detention and deportations. External Accountability: UK lawmakers heard claims that intelligence on Sudan atrocities was suppressed to protect UAE ties.

Atrocity Warnings in El Obeid: The UN and multiple European governments say the RSF is massing around El Obeid and warn of imminent mass atrocities unless the offensive is halted and aid is allowed in. Humanitarian Crisis Deepens: The IOM says humanitarian missions have suspended access as insecurity worsens, raising fears of a catastrophe within weeks. Battlefield Developments: Fighting is intensifying across Sudan, with SAF reporting drone shootdowns in North Darfur and claiming gains in Blue Nile after capturing Al-Bar. War Economy & Gold: Reporting highlights how gold smuggling and illicit finance keep the war going, with Sudan’s gold routes tied to regional networks. International Pressure on Accountability: A UK parliamentary hearing alleges UK officials suppressed atrocity-related intelligence to protect ties with the UAE. Regional Mobility Curbs: Libya’s eastern authorities ban entry for Sudanese nationals (along with Eritreans, Ethiopians, and Somalis), citing border reorganization and security concerns. Diplomacy & Logistics: Oman and Sudan discuss stronger port and logistics cooperation, including an MoU between Omani and Sudanese port entities. Religious Community Under Fire: A priest in Sudan’s Nuba Mountains was killed after militants stole medicines from his church store. Rights Documentation: A UN human rights report details widespread conflict-related sexual violence across Sudan.

El-Obeid Atrocity Warnings: The US says RSF is massing and encircling el-Obeid, warning of imminent mass atrocities and urging protection of civilians and unhindered humanitarian access as drone strikes hit fuel, food and water routes. International Pressure: Britain and six European allies issue a joint call for an immediate halt to RSF violence in el-Obeid, warning that attacks on civilian infrastructure could worsen shortages for hundreds of thousands. Frontline Updates: Fighting intensifies across Sudan, with SAF reporting drone shootdowns in North Darfur and claiming new gains in Blue Nile after capturing Al-Bar, while clashes also continue in Darfur and Kordofan. War Economy & Gold: Analysts describe a war economy fueled by illicit gold flows; Sudan’s gold remains central to financing, with exports largely leaking through smuggling networks. RSF Defections: Reports say RSF defections are emboldening SAF, with defectors bringing vehicles and battlefield know-how. Regional Spillover: Egypt detains hundreds near the Sudan border in crackdowns on illegal gold mining and smuggling, highlighting how Sudan’s chaos feeds cross-border crime. Diplomacy & Aid: Qatar Chamber joins UNIDO dialogue on private-sector partnerships for recovery in Sudan, alongside Syria and Palestine. Humanitarian Context: UNHCR reports global forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, while returns rose—yet Sudan remains among the highest return-rate countries.

El-Obeid Atrocity Warnings: The UN Security Council and the US State Department have warned of an imminent risk of mass atrocities in Sudan’s El-Obeid as RSF forces mass and drone attacks reportedly hit civilian infrastructure and displacement shelters, with the US stressing there is “no military solution” and calling for safe humanitarian access. Rights Pressure & Accountability: Human Rights Watch urged stronger international action to deter further atrocities and called for accountability for defecting militia commanders, including pressure on external backers. Darfur Defections & Justice Fears: Reuters reports Sudan’s army has been publicly welcoming RSF defectors, including a commander given rank in Khartoum, while Darfur civilians and victims’ families fear alleged war crimes will go unpunished. Regional Diplomacy: Sudan is seeking greater international spotlight via Türkiye, while Saudi and Egyptian-Moroccan coordination continues in Amman alongside Arab League talks that also touch Sudan and Libya. Humanitarian & Civilian Impact: A Sudan Doctors Network report says an RSF drone strike killed at least two people and injured 17 at a displacement shelter, underscoring the shrinking space for civilians. Migration Pressure Beyond Sudan: Amnesty says EU-backed migration control in Libya is complicit in a renewed xenophobic crackdown that includes expulsions of Sudanese nationals without asylum access. Sudan’s Diplomatic Outreach: Qatar reaffirmed support for protecting women and mothers’ rights, citing grave violations in conflict zones including Sudan.

El-Obeid Atrocity Alarm: The US warned that mass atrocities could be imminent in Sudan’s el-Obeid after reports that the RSF and allied forces are massing and encircling the city, urging RSF/SAF to halt actions endangering civilians and allowing humanitarian access. UN/International Pressure: The warning follows UN Security Council concerns about an “imminent risk of mass atrocities,” with fears tied to past RSF assaults. Khartoum-Egypt Border Tensions: Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief Lt Gen Abdelfattah El Burhan promised an investigation into claims that Egyptian forces attacked Sudanese miners near the border, as Red Sea state tensions also rise over local control of gold routes. Egypt Crackdown on Gold Mining: Egypt detained 223 suspects near the Sudan border in an operation targeting illegal gold mining and smuggling, including 87 Egyptians and 136 foreigners, while seizing equipment, vehicles, weapons, and cash. Diplomacy Focus: A Sudanese official said Khartoum wants Türkiye to boost international attention on the war and urged the international community to designate the RSF as a terrorist organization. Refugee Returns: Sudan said it has set up an electronic platform to register and prioritize voluntary return requests from Libya, following earlier embassy-led return flights.

Sudan Conflict Watch: The UN Security Council warned of an “imminent risk of mass atrocities” in El-Obeid as RSF attacks intensify, putting about 500,000 civilians at risk and urging the RSF to halt its assault, protect civilians, and respect international humanitarian law. Regional Diplomacy: IGAD also urged an immediate ceasefire and the halt of all military operations around El-Obeid, warning escalation will worsen an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. Humanitarian Accountability: Sudan’s “Government of Peace and Unity” ordered a suspension of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) activities in eastern Chad over allegations of sexual exploitation involving Sudanese refugees, setting up a fact-finding committee with findings due in 30 days. Press Freedom: Award-winning Sudanese journalist Mohammed Amin said the UK denied his visa to attend a London ceremony, calling it a “double standard and censorship.” Refugee Support: Qatar reaffirmed its refugee and IDP assistance, citing over $68m in humanitarian aid in 2025, including support for Sudanese refugees in Egypt.

Sudan Crisis Watch: The UN Security Council says there is an “imminent risk of mass atrocities” as the RSF presses toward El-Obeid, warning about drone strikes, civilian harm, and a humanitarian collapse that could put about 500,000 people at risk. Regional Diplomacy: In Cairo, Turkish FM Hakan Fidan warned that technical issues in the US-Iran MoU may drag on and said Israel could sabotage talks; he also met Egypt’s FM and Sudan’s top diplomat. Foreign Policy Coordination: Egypt and Turkey’s FMs discussed strengthening bilateral ties and regional files, including Sudan, alongside US adviser Massad Boulos. Cross-Border Security: Egypt arrested hundreds of Sudanese accused of illegal gold prospecting in its southeast, with reports of hundreds detained and some deported. Conflict Spillover: RSF claims gains in Blue Nile, while drone strikes and fighting continue to displace civilians. Humanitarian Inclusion: UNHCR chief Barham Salih visited Ethiopia’s Ura settlement, praising a government-led model that gives refugees documentation, services, and job access.

El-Obeid Atrocity Warning: The UN Security Council says the RSF is massing around army-held El-Obeid in North Kordofan and warns of an imminent risk of mass atrocities, citing drone strikes, worsening humanitarian conditions, and calling for an immediate halt to any assault. Accountability & Aid Access: The UNSC demands investigations into alleged abuses, urges compliance with international humanitarian law and the Jeddah Declaration, and calls for safe, unhindered humanitarian access and civilian passage. Regional Diplomacy Signals: A report says Saudi Arabia is quietly building a civilian political base around SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, aiming to shape Sudan’s postwar transition while keeping him central. Drone Warfare Escalation: Separate reporting highlights rising drone use by Sudan’s warring factions and claims Iranian military technology is being smuggled via Yemen-linked networks to Sudanese Islamist-aligned groups.

UN Security Council Pressure on El Obeid: The UN Security Council says it is alarmed by reports of RSF military reinforcements around El Obeid, warning of an imminent ground offensive and a repeat of mass atrocity risks seen elsewhere. It demands the RSF halt its assault, urges all parties to protect civilians, allow safe humanitarian access and passage, investigate abuses, and rejects any RSF parallel governing authority. Diplomatic Coordination: Egypt’s foreign minister met Sudan’s counterpart, reiterating Cairo’s support for Sudan’s unity and rejecting parallel entities, while pushing for a humanitarian truce to enable a sustainable ceasefire and restart the political process. Humanitarian Context: UN officials also warn El Obeid could face escalating violence tied to drone attacks and worsening conditions for civilians, as displacement and humanitarian needs deepen.

RSF Offensive Warning: The UN’s Volker Türk urged immediate action to stop an “imminent” RSF push toward el-Obeid, warning of a repeat of el-Fasher atrocities as drone strikes and artillery intensify. Civilian Infrastructure Hit: Sudan Doctors Network said RSF shelling knocked out medical facilities and water stations in el-Obeid, including dialysis and emergency departments, worsening conditions for over a million residents and displaced people. Drone Strikes Escalate Fear: Reports say RSF drones struck el-Obeid’s main power station, plunging the city into blackout and targeting fuel and supply routes, deepening a fuel and services crisis. Gold Mining Rumor Denied: Egypt’s Petroleum Ministry rejected social media claims that deals were signed to develop 108 gold mines in northern Sudan, saying no official statements were made and warning of legal action. Humanitarian Displacement in Blue Nile: Xinhua described harsh conditions at Al-Karama displacement center in Blue Nile, with about 9,000 people living in 1,500–1,800 tents after clashes since early 2025. MSF Suspension in Chad: A Sudan-aligned authority ordered MSF to suspend activities in eastern Chad over alleged sexual exploitation of Sudanese refugees, after MSF dismissed 18 staff over abuse claims. International Justice Push: Sudanese survivors filed a war crimes complaint against RSF in Kenya, seeking accountability for alleged atrocities.

El-Obeid Crisis: The UN and UN rights chief Volker Türk warned RSF is preparing an “imminent offensive” on el-Obeid, North Kordofan, after troop build-ups, drone strikes and artillery shelling raised fears of mass atrocities—urging outside pressure to stop the escalation. Civilian Infrastructure Hit: Sudan Doctors Network reported RSF shelling knocked out medical facilities and water stations in el-Obeid, including dialysis and emergency departments, worsening conditions for over a million residents and displaced people. Humanitarian Access Under Pressure: Sudan’s RSF-aligned government in eastern Chad ordered MSF to suspend operations over sexual exploitation allegations involving Sudanese refugees, while a fact-finding committee was set up to investigate. International Accountability: A Sudanese survivors’ push for war crimes action continues, with reports of Sudanese victims seeking ICC scrutiny of RSF atrocities and external support links. Regional Politics Watch: Iraq’s PM Ali al-Zaidi reshuffled key border ports, intelligence and security posts, signaling tighter control amid US-Iran rivalry. Global Context: A new study by PRIO says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025, citing Sudan among major drivers of the surge.

El Obeid Under Threat: The UN says fighting around Sudan’s El Obeid could trigger another Al Fasher-style catastrophe, after reports of RSF troop build-ups, drone strikes, and shelling. International Pressure: UN rights chief Volker Türk and UN chief Antonio Guterres both urged restraint and a halt to any “imminent offensive,” warning of serious international crimes and mass civilian harm. Atrocity Warnings: Norway and a coalition of countries told the UN Human Rights Council that up to 500,000 civilians may be at risk, with credible reports of ethnic and gender-based violence. Hunger Crisis Deepens: A UN FAO/WFP outlook classifies Sudan among the world’s most dangerous famine hotspots through Nov 2026, with 19.5 million people facing acute food insecurity and 5 million already in emergency conditions. Legal Accountability Move: Survivors filed a war crimes complaint in Kenya against alleged RSF commanders, alleging torture, rape, sexual slavery, and killings. Regional Diplomacy: EU heads of mission visited Khartoum for the first time since 2023, signaling a possible shift toward more direct engagement.

Sudan Conflict Watch: The UN chief says he’s alarmed by a major RSF military buildup around El Obeid, warning it could signal an imminent ground offensive that would put civilians at “grave risk,” as the world fears a repeat of El Fasher. Atrocity Warnings: Norway and a coalition of countries told the UN Human Rights Council that credible reports of ethnic and gender-based violence are emerging, with drone strikes already killing at least 50 civilians and about 500,000 people at risk if the assault escalates. International Justice Debate: A separate commentary highlights the limits of the ICC in a multipolar world, even as Sudan-related atrocity investigations remain a key test for universal justice. EU Diplomacy Shift: An EU delegation’s first visit to Khartoum since 2023 is framed as a more pragmatic European engagement, reflecting changing control on the ground and a move beyond isolation. Sudan Politics & Defections: The resignation of a senior RSF-linked political figure is raising fresh questions about defections and what they could mean for RSF cohesion and any future dialogue. Humanitarian Pressure: IOM warns that cuts to development and humanitarian aid are pushing more people to flee, pointing directly to Sudan as a case where reduced support worsens displacement.